Liberalism’s Optimism Problem

Realism, The Final Frontier

As liberals, we embrace the idea of a future wonderland, often resembling something out of Star Trek. No divisions across race, ethnicity, orientation and the like. Energy that doesn’t rely on destroying the environment. Basic human needs – shelter, food, clothing – provided for all without the ravages of capitalism. It sounds great, and it’s a big reason I became a liberal.

But sometimes, over the years, I have found a downside to this optimism. I frequently see a tendency among liberals of looking at a situation and finding too much of a possible upside. And then leaping to the next, even brighter version of events, even though the first domino has yet to drop.

This has cropped up in several instances in the last decade as some of us have compared it to a drug, labeling this mindset “hopium.” Take, for instance, the idea that Donald Trump is “going to jail.” We have been hearing since sometime in late 2016 that everything was going to catch up to Trump and that he would be sent directly to jail, whether that be for tax evasion, election interference, hush money, etc. There was also the idea that Republicans who egged on the January 6 attack would be removed from Congress or prosecuted for sedition.

And it isn’t new. I remember how we heard for years and years how George W. Bush would be prosecuted in The Hague for war crimes. Or how Karl Rove would go to prison for leaking information.

The worst one is probably the notion that Fox News’ cultist viewers can be reached, that the perfect zinger from Secretary Pete Buttigieg appearing with Neil Cavuto is the remedy that grants a “permission structure” to Republicans to leave Trump.

The flights of fancy go on and on. It would be one thing if these were just idle daydreams of the worst people getting their just desserts, but these kinds of hopium binges end up becoming articles of faith.

I am not a “doomer,” nor am I pessimist. I see myself as a realistic optimist. Do I look at an election map and say there’s no way Democrats can win the electoral college, or (and this was frequently said after 2010) that the House was so gerrymandered there was no way for a Democratic majority to prevail? No. But at the same time, I can look at events and make a credible argument that it’s a waste of time to throw money at extremely unwinnable House races, and that the odds are extremely against Democrats flipping states like Texas and Florida.

And yes, seemingly impossible goals can be achieved. In the deepest pits of the George W. Bush era, as he was marching our troops to death in Iraq and killing thousands of innocent Iraqis while plunging the economy into chaos, it seemed crazy that we would elect a Black man with a “foreign-sounding” name to the presidency. Then he got the biggest election win since 1984. So it’s good to dream big.

But allowing ourselves to live in flights of fancy is not healthy. The odds are in favor of the voters serving up a satisfying verdict to Trump before one is given by any criminal court. War criminals like Bush and Dick Cheney are more likely to die in wealth and comfort than in a jail cell or in public shunning. The dream scenario, where we’re all wearing Star Trek unitards and cosplaying on the holodeck probably ain’t gonna happen.

The crash into reality from the height of these dreams can be soul-crushing. The outcome of the Mueller investigation, for instance, was a limp report and an embarrassing congressional hearing – not Trump being taken on a perp walk. Trump’s first impeachment trial took too long to happen (Democratic leadership clearly didn’t want to do it) and ultimately, he was not removed from office. Going from visions of Bush groveling on the floor of his international jail cell to the reality of him getting sworn in for a second term hurt in the soul.

Liberalism needs to stop getting high on its own supply. Optimism is central to our identities, but we have to stop veering off into unrealistic feedback loops that become the mirror image of the right insisting since 1992 that Hillary Clinton is headed to prison.

The truly great is possible, whether that means winning labor rights, voting rights, a social security system, health care reform, or the first Black president and vice president. But it must be tempered with some additive of reality.

Keeping reality in mind, and its limitations, will help us to work smarter and harder towards the achievable goals that seem impossible today.

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— Oliver

Follow me, Oliver Willis, on Threads @owillis1977

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